One year ago today, President Obama issued “red line” threat on Syrian chemical weapons use. But Joint Chiefs chairman now opposed to US military intervention.

obama-redlinespeech821(Washington, D.C.) — Will the Obama administration decide to use military force inside Syria to stop the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons and protect Syrian civilians, or even to bring down the Assad regime?

Precisely one year ago today, President Obama warned the Syrian regime not to cross his “red line” by using chemical weapons. Today, it appears the Assad regime may have used such weapons of mass destruction multiple times, including in recent days, allegedly leading to the death of hundreds, if not thousands.

“President Obama’s warning to Syria that the use of chemical weapons would cross a ‘red line’ for the administration drew criticism Tuesday, with experts saying that the remark could provide President Bashar al-Assad cover to continue battling the opposition with tanks, warplanes and other conventional weaponry,” reported the Washington Post at the time. “Obama on Monday used some of his most specific language yet to warn Assad not to use or move Syria’s stockpile of chemical weapons, saying that such an action would change his ‘calculus’ about the possibility of a U.S. intervention.”

“We have been very clear to the Assad regime, but also to other players on the ground, that a red line for us is [if] we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized,” Obama told reporters. “That would change my calculus.”

Now the President’s credibility is on the line.

However, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has just declared that the U.S. should not try to assist the Syrian rebels because they will not serve American or Western interests.

“The Obama administration is opposed to even limited U.S. military intervention in Syria because it believes rebels fighting the Assad regime wouldn’t support American interests if they were to seize power right now, according to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,” reports the Associated Press. “Effectively ruling out U.S. cruise missile attacks and other options that wouldn’t require U.S. troops on the ground, Gen. Martin Dempsey said in a letter to a congressman that the military is clearly capable of taking out Syrian President Bashar Assad’s air force and shifting the balance of the Arab country’s 2 1/2-year war back toward the armed opposition. But he said such an approach would plunge the United States deep into another war in the Arab world and offer no strategy for peace in a nation plagued by ethnic rivalries. ‘Syria today is not about choosing between two sides but rather about choosing one among many sides,’ Dempsey said in the letter Aug. 19 to Rep. Eliot Engel, D-N.Y. ‘It is my belief that the side we choose must be ready to promote their interests and ours when the balance shifts in their favor. Today, they are not.'”

We are witnessing a terrible evil unleashed in Syria. There are no good answers at the moment for American or Western governments. We need to pray faithfully for the people of Syria. We also need to be aware that Bible prophecy indicates the city of Damascus will be utterly destroyed in the End Times in a divine judgment of its evil. The Bible does not say precisely when this judgment will occur, but it is not out of the question to think it could be coming soon in light of the recent carnage. This is all the more reason we need to be praying for the Christians in Syria to be brave, and to be bold. We should join with them to do everything possible to communicate the Gospel of Jesus Christ to all Syrians — especially those in Syria — before it is too late.

>> To watch the President’s warning on Syrian chemical weapons use on August 21, 2012, please click here.

>> To read Damascus Countdown, a New York Times best-selling novel about how the prophetic destruction of Damascus might unfold, please click here.

Kansas Governor Brownback has invited me to Topeka to speak about “Damascus Countdown.” Please join us at the State Capitol on Sept. 7.

damascuscountdown(Washington, D.C.) — Governor Sam Brownback and his wife, Mary, have invited me to speak about my novel, Damascus Countdownat an event at the Kansas State Capitol in Topeka, and I am honored to accept.

The event is the 3rd Annual Kansas Book Festival. It is free and open to the public, and will take place on Saturday, September 7th. I am scheduled to speak at 1:30pm in the House Chamber (details here).

I’ll be discussing why I wrote the book, and the latest developments and trend lines in Syria, Iran and the broader Middle East. The event will last about an hour, including Q&A, and will be followed by a book signing.

Governor Brownback and I first met and became friends when he served here in Washington, first as a Congressman, and then as a U.S. Senator. During his tenure, Brownback served as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s Subcommittee on Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs. He is a great friend of Israel and took a serious interest in issues related to Iran, Syria, Sudan, and the threat of Radical Islam.

The 3rd Annual Kansas Book Festival will feature more than 25 locally and nationally-known authors who will give presentations throughout the day on their most recent books. The festival’s goal is to promote literacy and a love for reading among Kansans of all ages by hosting this day-long festival, awarding grants to libraries across the state and encouraging children to become writers through their annual writing contest. You can find more information, including the 2013 schedule, by visiting their website at www.kansasbookfestival.com.

A dark turn in Damascus: Reports of 1,100 Syrians killed in new chemical weapons attacks.

"Syrian activists inspect the bodies of people they say were killed by nerve gas in the Ghouta region near Damascus on Wednesday." (source: Reuters)

“Syrian activists inspect the bodies of people they say were killed by nerve gas in the Ghouta region near Damascus on Wednesday.” (source: Reuters)

(Washington, D.C.) — Six months after an alleged poison gas attack, UN chemical weapons inspectors have just arrived in Syria. Time magazine asks whether they are on a “fool’s errand” — too little, too late? But now it appears they may have arrived just in time. There are widespread reports this morning  of a much larger chemical weapons attack by the Assad government against rebel forces near Damascus.

  • Reuters reports upwards of 200 people have been killed, including women and children.
  • The UK Independent puts the number of dead at 650 people.
  • The Associated Press is reporting that as many as 1,100 people have been killed.
  • [For the latest developments, go to the Reuters live Syria blog which I’m finding quite helpful.]

The Assad regime has denied that any chemical weapons have been used.

In separate news — possibly related — the Israeli government deployed a new Iron Dome rocket/missile defense system in central Israel, in the Sharon valley overnight. Is the Israeli government becoming concerned the Assad regime could launch chemical attacks on Israel?

Please join me in praying for peace and stability in Syria. With more than 100,000 Syrians dead in this horrific civil war, let us pray for the victims and their families. Let’s pray for the Christians there to be brave and to boldly preach the Gospel of Jesus Christ — that God offers individuals good news of forgiveness and eternal life and hope for their souls in sharp contrast to the evil all around them. And please pray with me that the Lord will show the Church how to do more to help our brothers and sisters in Syria, as well as how to help the suffering Muslims of Syria.

  • “Anti-government activists accused the Syrian government of pounding areas east of Damascus, the capital, with rockets carrying poison gas early Wednesday, filling local hospitals with dead and wounded,” reports the New York Times. “Amateur videos posted online showed men and children sprawled out on hospital beds and on tile floors, some not moving, while others were being treated by medics with hand-pump respirators. The source of the images could not immediately be verified and the government of President Bashar al-Assad denied using chemical weapons.”

Excerpts from the Times report:

  • The attacks came the day after a team sent to Syria by the United Nations to investigate allegations of chemical weapons use was to begin working. Numerous allegations of chemical weapons use have surfaced during the civil war between the forces of Mr. Assad and rebels seeking his ouster, but none have been verified by outside institutions.       
  • In London, the British government, which supports the rebels, said it would raise the reported chemical attacks with the United Nations Security Council, potentially broadening the diplomatic implications of the reported attack.       
  • Unlike the videos often uploaded after government attacks, the images on Wednesday showed very little blood, as few of the patients appeared to have conventional injuries. Activists claimed that women were among the victims.       
  • In one video, medical workers were shown moving through what appeared to be a room full of apparently lifeless young men in their underclothing. Two others showed children, one of them motionless and staring, the other seeming to twitch uncontrollably….
  • An activist reached in the Damascus suburb of Erbeen via Skype said the attack began at 2 a.m., when rockets struck surrounding areas. He and his colleagues rushed to evacuate the wounded, and they had to break down doors of homes to get them out.
  • “I saw many children lying on beds as if they were sleeping, but unfortunately they were dead,” said the activist, who gave his name as Abu Yassin, adding that he believed the number of dead was in the hundreds….
  • In a statement on Wednesday, the British foreign secretary, William Hague, said he was “deeply concerned by reports that hundreds of people, including children, have been killed in airstrikes and a chemical weapons attack on rebel-held areas near Damascus.”
  • “These reports are uncorroborated and we are urgently seeking more information. But it is clear that if they are verified, it would mark a shocking escalation in the use of chemical weapons in Syria,” he said, urging the Syrian government to allow the United Nations team currently in Syria “immediate access” to the location of the claimed attacks.

KEY HEADLINES TO TRACK:

In a zero-sum game, the U.S. should hold its nose and back the Egyptian military, argues a WSJ columnist. Is he right?

Egypt-flag(Washington, D.C.) — The violence in Egypt is horrific, heart-breaking and painful to watch. The question is: What do we do about it?

The Wall Street Journal’s Bret Stephens writes a thought-provoking column today that I commend to your attention. The former editor-in-chief of the Jerusalem Post raises a very important question. He argues it is time for the U.S. government to be crystal clear: Is the U.S. on the side of the Egyptian military to defeat Radical Islam, restore some sense of law & order, and protect minority groups (like the Coptic Christians), or is the U.S. on the side of the Muslim Brotherhood which seeks to impose Radical Islam, establish Sharia law and spread the Islamic revolution?

Stephens argues that Senators and Congressmen — and administration officials — who call for cutting off U.S. aid to the Egyptian military are effectively supporting the Brotherhood. Is that really the right policy?

The Daily Alert website (tracking key stories in the Middle East) sums up Stephens’ argument as follows.

  • A policy  is a set of pragmatic choices between unpalatable alternatives designed to achieve the most desirable realistic result. 
  • Restoring the dictatorship-in-the-making that was Morsi’s elected government is neither desirable nor realistic. 
  • Bringing the Brotherhood into some kind of inclusive coalition government in which it accepts a reduced political role in exchange for calling off its sit-ins and demonstrations   is not realistic.
  • What is realistic and desirable is for the military to succeed in its confrontation with the Brotherhood as quickly and convincingly as possible. And it beats the alternatives of outright civil war  or victory by a vengeful Muslim Brotherhood.
  • Politics in Egypt today is a zero-sum game: Either the military wins, or the Brotherhood does. If the U.S. wants influence, it needs to hold its nose and take a side.

To read Stephens’ full column — which I recommend — please click here.

Is Stephens’ right? What do you think?

RELATED HEADLINES WORTH TRACKING:

Violence out of control in Egypt. Over 700 dead. Upwards of 40 churches burned.

Map of attacks on Egyptian Christians (USA Today graphic),

Map of attacks on Egyptian Christians (USA Today graphic),

(Schroon Lake, New York) — More than 700 people have been killed this week in violence on the streets of Egypt as Muslim Brotherhood forces battle with the Egyptian military for control. At the same time, the Brotherhood has unleashed attacks on Egyptian Christians. Some reports say at least 25 churches have been torched, while at least one report puts the number at more than 40 churches.

Forgive me for not being more prompt on reporting on this. I’ve been on vacation this week in the Adirondack Mountains with my family, teaching at the Word of Life Inn & Family Camp.

Here is a summary of the latest developments. I’ll report more when I get back to Washington tomorrow. I also hope to do a podcast on the situation in Egypt very soon. In the meantime, please be praying for peace and stability, and pray for courage and boldness for the believers in Egypt during this horrific time.

“Egypt’s capital descended into chaos Friday as vigilantes at neighborhood checkpoints battled Muslim Brotherhood-led protesters denouncing the ouster of President Mohammed Morsi and a deadly crackdown,” reports the Associated Press. “The fiercest street clashes Cairo has seen in more than two years of turmoil left at least 82 people dead, including 10 policemen.”

“The sight of residents firing at one another marked a dark turn in the conflict, as civilians armed with pistols and assault rifles fought protesters taking part in what the Muslim Brotherhood called a “Day of Rage” — ignited by anger at security forces for clearing two sit-in demonstrations Wednesday that sparked nationwide clashes,” AP noted. “Military helicopters circled overhead as residents furious with the Brotherhood protests pelted marchers with rocks and glass bottles. The two sides also fired on one another, sparking running street battles throughout the capital’s residential neighborhoods.”

“Across the country, at least 72 civilians were killed, along with 10 police officers, security officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with regulations,” reported AP. “Friday’s violence capped off a week that saw more than 700 people killed across the country — surpassing the combined death toll from two and a half years of violent protests since the ouster of longtime leader Hosni Mubarak until the toppling of Morsi in a July 3 coup.”

Meanwhile, “Egypt’s Christians are living in fear after a string of attacks against  churches, businesses and homes they say were carried out by angry supporters of  ousted Islamist president Mohamed Morsi,” reports Agence France Presse. “As police dispersed Morsi supporters from two Cairo squares on Wednesday, attackers torched churches across the country in an apparent response.”

“People are terrified; no one dares leave home,” Marco, a 27-year-old  engineer, told AFP by phone from the central city of Sohag.

“The city has become a ghost town, he said, describing an atmosphere of terror where attackers ‘know where the Copts live’ and torched several churches before  turning to homes,” reported AFP. “The Maspero Youth Union, a Coptic Christian youth movement, denounced what it  called a ‘retaliation war’ against the religious minority, which makes up around 10 percent of Egypt’s population. The group accused Morsi supporters of targeting them in response to Coptic  Pope Tawadros II’s support for the July 3 coup that ousted the Islamist  leader. The Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights (EIPR), a local NGO, says at  least 25 churches were torched on Wednesday and Thursday, and that attackers  also targeted Christian schools, shops and homes across all 27 provinces.”

To see the USA Today graphic with a map of where the most recent attacks on Christians have been occurring in Egypt, please click here.

Two new podcasts available on the Iran threat & the Mideast peace process

podcastWe’ve posted two new podcasts this week:

* Podcast #2: The rise of Hassan Rouhani as President of Iran & the growing prospect of war between Israel and Iran

* Podcast #3: Inside the Israeli-Palestinian peace process — five critical questions that need to be asked

You can listen to them by going to my web site, www.joelrosenberg.com and clicking on “Podcast,” or you can click here to be directed right to my podcast page.

You can also find the podcast on iTunes and download it to your phone. Just search for “Joel C. Rosenberg Podcast” and look for the photo/logo that you see here to the left.

Please subscribe today and you’ll be instantly notified when the next episode is available.

Update: Putin, Rouhani to meet in Kyrgyzstan next month, not in Tehran.

putin(Washington, D.C.) — “Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with newly elected Iranian President Hasan Rouhani next month in Kyrgyzstan, a top aide to the Russian president announced Friday,” the Times of Israel reports. “Foreign policy adviser Yury Ushakov said the two leaders will convene on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit set to take place on September 13 in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan’s capital and largest city.”

“Iran holds an observer status in the SCO, a security organization headed by China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan,” the article notes. “Putin and Rouhani have previously met to discuss Iran’s nuclear policies when Rouihan served as the chief negotiator for Iran’s nuclear program. Earlier this week, Russian parliament speaker Sergei Naryshkin attended Rouhani’s inauguration in Tehran. Naryshkin said Russia and Iran may expand collaboration in civilian nuclear-power engineering after Iran’s first nuclear power plant comes into full operation, Russian news site RiaNovosti reported.”

On July 24th, I reported Putin would be heading to Tehran in mid-August, based on a Reuters report. It is not yet clear why date and venue of the meeting was changed.

I’ve launched a podcast on Israel, Mideast & prophecy issues. Subscribe & listen for free.

podcast(Denver, Colorado) — I’m very pleased to announce that Tyndale and I have just launched a podcast  that will focus on Israel, Middle East and prophecy issues. You can listen to it by going to my web site, www.joelrosenberg.com, or by clicking here to be directed right to my podcast page.

You can also find the podcast on iTunes and download it to your phone. Just search for “Joel C. Rosenberg Podcast” and look for the photo/logo that you see here to the left.

Please subscribe today and you’ll be instantly notified when the next episode is available.

The first installment is already posted. It’s an interview that Christian radio host Janet Parshall did with me last week. We discuss my recent five-week trip to Israel, leading a tour for The Joshua Fund, hosting the 2013 Epicenter Conference, teaching the prophecies of Isaiah 17 & Jeremiah 49 on the Syrian border overlooking Damascus, and analyzing the latest geopolitical trends in the region.

The next installments should be posted soon. They will focus on:

  • The rise of Hassan Rouhani as the new President of Iran and the growing prospect of war between Israel & Iran.
  • Inside the Israeli-Palestinian peace process: Five questions that need to be asked.
  • and an exclusive look at the new novel I’m writing about World War II and the Holocaust.

Other installments in the future will include radio interviews I do around the country, and hopefully sermons and speeches I give as well.

Many of you have been asking for a podcast for sometime. Thanks for asking — hopefully you’ll like what you hear.

Please post your comments on our “Epicenter Team” page on Facebook. Thanks again, and may the Lord bless you as you pray for the peace of Jerusalem according to Psalm 122:6. 

More than 100,000 now dead in Syria’s civil war, says UN chief

Syria-map“The number of dead in Syria’s civil war has passed 100,000, the U.N. chief…calling for urgent talks on ending 2½ years of violence even as President Bashar Assad’s government blasted the United States as an unsuitable peace broker,” reported the Associated Press.

“All international attempts to broker a political solution to the Syrian civil war have failed. Despite a stalemate that has settled in for months, both sides still believe they can win the war and have placed impossible conditions for negotiations,” notes AP. “The international community has been unable — and some say, unwilling — to intervene sufficiently to tip the balance in favor of either the Assad regime or the rebels.”

“There is no military solution to Syria,” U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told reporters at the United Nations. “There is only a political solution, and that will require leadership in order to bring people to the table,” he said.

“He spoke ahead of talks with U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who said the death toll had risen from nearly 93,000 just over a month ago to more than 100,000. Syrian opposition groups had made that same estimate a month ago,” said AP.

  • Please pray for the people of Syria — and especially for those in Damascus — that God would have mercy on them.
  • Pray that the Lord would bring down the Assad regime in His timing, but please also pray that the Radical jihadist rebels would not seize power.
  • Pray that the Lord would also a moderate, peaceful government, just as we are praying for in Egypt.
  • Please also pray for the Church in Syria to be bold and courageous and to fearlessly proclaim that the only true peace for Syrians will come when they received Jesus Christ as Savior and Lord and commit themselves to reading and obeying the Word of God.

>> To read Damascus Countdown, please click here

End Game update: Mounting evidence suggests Israeli strike on Iran approaching.

israel-lineoffighterjets(Denver, Colorado) — Evidence is mounting that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is increasingly prepared to order a massive preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear sites.

Here’s why:

  1. Iran aggressively pursuing two routes to nuclear weaponry, one via uranium enrichment, the other via plutonium.
  2. Thus, Iran is steadily approaching the “red line,” the point at which Netanyahu has said Israel would have no choice but to strike.
  3. Officials in Jerusalem do not see the Obama administration taking decisive action to prevent Iran from getting The Bomb.
  4. To the contrary, Israel sees President Obama and Secretary John Kerry weakening their resolve and opening the door to indefinite negotiations with the new Rouhani administration, which they perceive as “moderate.”
  5. Israeli military leaders believe they have the operational capabilities to destroy — or at least seriously damage — Iran’s nuclear program, but they have a shortening window of time, after which the task would be beyond Israel’s capabilities.

The real-life scenario is playing out eerily like the fictional scenario I described in Damascus Countdown. Let me explain more detail:

On July 15th, I wrote that senior Israeli officials at the highest levels were telling me that Iran was dangerously close to the “red line” and that they were ready to go to war, but that they were waiting for any signs that the West — and specifically the U.S. — were going to take meaningful action. 

However, not only has President Obama refused to take such action, his administration is going in the opposite direction. The White House is resisting tougher economic sanctions. It is lauding the emergence of a “moderate” like Hassan Rouhani as Iran’s new president. It is offering an olive branch to Rouhani, actively opening the door to many more months of diplomatic negotiations. It is doing so even though the Ayatollah Khamenei — the true power in Iran — has shown no sign he is willing to back down from pursuing The Bomb, and even though Rouhani’s claim to fame was that as Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, he fooled the world into believing that Iran was not advancing its nuclear program from 2003 to 2005 when the truth was Iran was, in fact, aggressively building its nuclear capacities.

“We are ready to engage in serious and substantial talks without wasting time,” Rouhani said Wednesday, urging the West to focus on “talks, not threats.”

Netanyahu, however, is not buying it. He is making the case that only intense and immediate pressure — much harsher economic sanctions, plus clear evidence of a serious and looming military option — has even the remotest hope of persuading Iran that the time for diplomatic games is over.

“Iran’s president said that pressure won’t work. Not true! The only thing that has worked in the last two decades is pressure. And the only thing that will work now is increased pressure,” said the Israeli premier.

Consider the latest news stories that are relevant to this analysis:

Official: Israel capable of unilateral strike on Iran, if US not committed (Jerusalem Post)

Key excerpts:

  • Israel is capable of carrying out a unilateral military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities without operational support from the United States, a senior Israeli official said…on Tuesday morning.
  • Although, such a strike would render less effective than one conducted by America, the unidentified official said….
  • The diplomatic official doubted US intentions to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons at all costs.
  • American conduct regarding Syria, contrary to declarations by President Barack Obama, shows Israel that it cannot rely on US assurances, the Israeli source said.
  • Israel fears the development of direct negotiations between Washington and Tehran would ease sanctions on the Islamic Republic in exchange for concessions, and would not satisfy the requirements imposed by Israel, the unnamed official added. Jerusalem and Washington differed on Sunday over the significance of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s inauguration, with Washington ready to work with Iran and Jerusalem warning that the new regime — like the old — is a threat to world peace.”

Iran Seen Trying New Path to a Bomb: U.S., European Officials Say Tehran Could Start Making Weapons-Grade Plutonium by Next Summer (Wall Street Journal)

Key excerpts:

  • Iran could begin producing weapons-grade plutonium by next summer, U.S. and European officials believe, using a different nuclear technology that would be easier for foreign countries to attack.
  • The second path to potentially producing a nuclear weapon could complicate international efforts to negotiate with Iran’s new president, Hasan Rouhani, who was sworn in Sunday in Tehran.
  • It also heightens the possibility of an Israeli strike, said U.S. and European officials….
  • In recent months, U.S. and European officials say, the Tehran regime has made significant advances on the construction of a heavy water reactor in the northwestern city of Arak. A reactor like the one under construction is capable of using the uranium fuel to produce 40 megawatts of power. Spent fuel from it contains plutonium—which, like enriched uranium, can serve as the raw material for an explosive device. India and Pakistan have built plutonium-based bombs, as has North Korea.
  • The Arak facility, when completed, will be capable of producing two nuclear bombs’ worth of plutonium a year, said U.S. and U.N. officials.
  • Iran has notified the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog, that it plans to make the reactor operational by the second half of 2014 and could begin testing it later this year.
  • The IAEA has been monitoring Arak since its construction began. But following Iran’s latest timeline, the site’s importance has vastly shot up for Washington and Brussels, said U.S. and European officials. “It really crept up on us,” said an official based at the IAEA’s Vienna headquarters.

Report: Iran’s Arak reactor to have nuclear weapons grade plutonium by next summer (Jerusalem Post)

Key excerpts:

  • “The Arak heavy water nuclear reactor in Iran will be capable of producing two nuclear bombs’ worth of weapons grade plutonium a year and will be capable of producing the material by next summer, according to a Wall Street Journal report on Monday that cited US, UN and EU officials…..
  • ‘There’s no question that the reactor and its heavy water are more vulnerable targets than the enrichment plants,’ the report quoted Gary Samore as saying, a former top adviser on nuclear issues to US President Barack Obama. ‘This could be another factor in [Prime Minister Binyamin] Netanyahu’s calculations in deciding how long to wait before launching military operations,’ Samore added.
  • The report cited current and former US officials who said an Israeli strike on Arak would likely have to take place prior to Iran introducing nuclear materials into the facility, in order to prevent an enormous environmental disaster.”

Iran’s economic crisis deepens as Rouhani prepares to take office (Washington Post)

Key excerpts:

  • Iran’s economy is showing signs of foundering just as the country prepares to inaugurate its first new president in eight years, with Western sanctions cutting ever deeper into the Islamic republic’s financial lifelines and increasing pressure for a nuclear deal with the West.
  • A welter of new data shows accelerated financial hemorrhaging across multiple sectors, from plummeting hard-currency reserves to steadily falling oil exports, Iran’s main source of foreign cash. U.S. officials and analysts say the tide of bad news will complicate the task awaiting Hassan Rouhani, the incoming president, but it could also increase Iran’s willingness to accept limits that would preclude it from developing nuclear weapons….
  • Iranian officials last month reported an inflation rate of 45 percent — compared with 32 percent earlier in the summer — while also acknowledging that the economy is set to contract for the first time in three decades.
  • Iran’s oil exports, which had declined nearly 40 percent by the end of last year, have taken a further hit in recent weeks as Tehran’s remaining Asian customers have cut back on purchases of Iranian crude.
  • A draft analysis by the economic research firm Roubini Global Economics estimated that Iran’s foreign currency holdings are declining at a rate of about $15 billion a year as Tehran is forced to tap into savings to meet its current budget needs….
  • Worsening matters for Iran, banking sanctions are preventing the government from accessing some of its remaining overseas reserves, said Mark Dubowitz, director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank that co-sponsored the Roubini study.
  • “Iran is in serious trouble,” said Dubowitz, a sanctions expert who advised on congressional legislation that authorized some of the harshest measures. Noting that Rouhani won the election in part because of popular discontent over the regime’s economic policies, Dubowitz said the “burden now is on Mr. Rouhani to persuade the supreme leader to compromise.”

Bottom Line: I pray war isn’t necessary and that somehow Iran is stopped from building and deploying operational nuclear weapons before it’s too late. War is not inevitable. But it does appear increasingly likely, especially if Israel perceives American resolve weakening in light of the Rouhani rise to power. Let us be faithful in praying for peace, but preparing for the possibility of war.

——————

>> To learn more about the work of The Joshua Fund — and/or to make a generous tax-deductible donation to this work — please visit TJF’s website at www.epicenterconference.com.