Iran’s Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — a fervent believer that the End of Days is at hand and the Islamic messiah known as the Twelfth Imam (or Imam al-Mahdi, or the “Promised One” is coming to conquer and rule the world imminently — began using Twitter on March 31, 2009. So far, he’s sent out a little over 9,000 Tweets.

I recently began following his Tweets to see what he was saying and how he was using social media. I’m glad I did.

On Saturday, the Iranian leader made news on a sensitive subject, saying that if Iran wanted nuclear weapons that “no power could have prevented us.”

“We believe in the elimination of nuclear weapons,” Khamenei Tweeted in both Farsi and English. “We don’t want to build nuclear weapons.”

But then he immediately sent another Tweet that said, “If we did not believe in the elimination of nuclear weapons and wanted to have one, no power could have prevented us.”

In yet another Tweet on Saturday, he wrote: “US [nuclear] talk proposals are propaganda” which he does not take seriously.

The central question world leaders must decide is whether Khamenei is telling the truth. Does he really believe in the eliminating nuclear weapons? Does he really oppose Iran building nuclear weapons? If so, why has Iran for years been breaking international law and defying numerous UN Security Council resolutions in pursuit of uranium enrichment and nuclear bomb technology?

On Valentine’s Day, Khamenei Tweeted a very blunt and direct statement: “I am not a diplomat. I am a revolutionary. I speak openly and honestly.”

It’s certainly true he is not a diplomat — he continually rejects American and UN offers to negotiate a peaceful resolution to this conflict. He’s certainly a revolutionary — he’s trying to export the Iranian Revolution throughout the Middle East and is the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism. Does he always speak only and honestly? No. Sometimes he does. Sometimes he doesn’t. In this case, he’s succeeding in making headlines around the world with a lie that he doesn’t believe in building nuclear weapons. But in that package of lies, he’s also signaling something he truly does believe, that  if Iran wanted The Bomb, it could get one. Khamenei believes this deeply. What’s more, I believe the evidence is unmistakeable: he does want The Bomb and he’s headlong in pursuit of it while trying to obfuscate his goals and intentions in the court of public opinion.

Several major international news outlets reported on Khamemei’s comments, including the Associated Press, Agence France Presse, and Reuters.

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Former Syrian Prime Minister Riad Hijab.

With the implosion of the Assad regime in full swing, the countdown to the fall of Damascus is on, and Iran is moving quickly to fill the vacuum. Now Riad Hijab — the former Prime Minister of Syria who defected from his senior position in Damascus last August — says that Iran’s military and intelligence forces are “actively running” the nation of Syria.

“Syria is occupied by the Iranian regime,” Hijab told an Arabic media outlet. “Who runs the country isn’t Bashar Assad but Kassem Suleimani, the head of Iran’s al-Quds Brigades [within the Revolutionary Guards].”

Evidence is mounting that Iran and Hezbollah, its Radical Shia terrorist organization, are moving military forces into the country so that if and when the Assad regime finally falls, Iran can fully and quickly seize and consolidate full control. Back in August, when I reported on this blog that Hijab had defected, I also quoted a press repors indicating that “Iran is sending thousands of fighters to help the Bashar Assad regime in it’s ongoing conflict with rebel forces, according to a Syrian opposition leader. Col. Abdul-Jabbar Mohammed Aqidi, the commander of rebel forces in Aleppo province, was quoted in Al Arabiya on Saturday saying that 3,000 Iranians had already passed through Damascus International Airport in the last week.”

“Hijab’s comments come less than a week after a Washington Post article claimed Iran and Hezbollah were ‘building a network of militias‘ in Syria to protect their interests when Assad falls,” notes a story today in the Times of Israel. “The militias are fighting alongside the regime, sources told the newspaper, but also preparing for a day-after scenario in which Assad is gone. A senior Obama administration official put the number of Iranian mercenaries in Syria at 50,000. Also on Friday, activists said some 150 rebels and government troops have been killed in fierce fighting for control of the international airport in the northern city of Aleppo and a major military air base nearby.”

Meanwhile, “After nearly two years of fighting, the death toll in Syria has reached some 90,000 people, US Secretary of State John Kerry said on Thursday,” according to AP and the Times of Israel.

>> What does the future of Israel hold? Come with me and The Joshua Fund on a “Prayer & Vision Trip” to the Holy Land and to the 2013 Epicenter Conference this summer. For more details, and/or to register, please click here.

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Is the Obama administration preparing to cut military aid to Israel?

UPDATE: Iran could use U.N. talks as cover to build bomb, UN chief says

UPDATE: World powers discussing easing sanctions on Iran

On the eve of his upcoming trip to Israel — and the President’s trip to the epicenter in March — Secretary of State John Kerry is sending a disturbing message: U.S. military assistance to Israel may soon be cut.

With tensions mounting between Israel and Iran, and with Syria imploding, now would be the wrong time to undermine Israeli national security and create new doubts in the region about the solidity of the U.S.-Israel alliance. Nevertheless, Kerry is warning that the Obama administration is looking at a “$300 million cut from foreign military financing accounts, which could result in cuts to assistance to Israel, Egypt, and Jordan,” according to a report by Foreign Policy magazine.

Is this a warning to Congress, or Netanyahu, or both?

The context of Kerry’s message is a warning to Congress about the effects of not soon striking a deal to avoid automatic, across-the-board federal spending cuts, known in Washington as “sequestration.” The Administration is saying to Congress: Give us the deal the President wants, or people are going to be hurt, including Israel.

At this same time, however, Kerry’s message could also be interpreted a subtle shot across the bow of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: Give us what the President wants, or we may find ourselves “forced” to cut military funding for vital programs, like the Iron Dome and/or other missile defense projects.

The President has made his position clear in recent years: 1) he wants Israel to divide Jerusalem and allow the Palestinians to make East Jerusalem their capital; 2) he wants Israel to make sweeping territorial and security concessions to create a sovereign and contiguous Palestinian state in the 1967 borders; and 3) he wants Israel to promise not to launch a preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear program but rather let the world powers deal with it.

Thus far, Netanyahu has not said yes to any of these three demands. Is the Administration now considering using U.S. aid to Israel as leverage to achieve its goals (while simultaneously trying to blame the potential cuts on the Republicans in the House)?

“At the beginning of March, across-the-board cuts to all discretionary spending accounts will go into effect, based on the 2011 Budget Control Act and the failure of the ‘supercommittee’ to agree upon discretionary budget cuts in 2012,” notes Foreign Policy’s blog, The Cable. “Congressional appropriators are planning to reorganize those cuts when the continuing resolution that has been temporarily funding the government expires at the end of March, a GOP Congressman told The Cable. ‘Sequestration would force the Department and USAID to make across-the-board reductions of $2.6 billion to fiscal 2013 funding levels under the continuing resolution,” Kerry wrote in a letter to Sen. Barbara Milkuski (D-MD) on Feb. 11. Cuts of this magnitude would seriously impair our ability to execute our vital missions of national security, diplomacy, and development.’ Kerry also said that sequestration would hurt the State Department’s efforts to ramp up security for diplomats abroad, despite that Congress already approved State’s request to devote an additional $1 billion to that effort. ‘These cuts would severely impair our efforts to enhance the security of U.S. government facilities overseas and ensure the safety of the thousands of U.S. diplomats serving the American people abroad,’ Kerry wrote.”

The next few weeks will prove quite interesting in U.S.-Israel relations, to say the least.

 >> What does the future of Israel hold? Come with me and The Joshua Fund on a “Prayer & Vision Trip” to the Holy Land and to the 2013 Epicenter Conference this summer. For more details, and/or to register, please click here.

• Pre-order Damascus Countdown, which releases March 5th
• Order the paperback of The Tehran Initiative
• To support The Joshua Fund, please visit www.joshuafund.net

“After nearly two years of fighting, the death toll in Syria has reached some 90,000 people, US Secretary of State John Kerry said on Thursday,” according to AP and the Times of Israel. “I had occasion … to speak this morning with the foreign minister of Saudi Arabia. The first thing he mentioned to me was in his estimate perhaps as many as 90,000 people have been killed in Syria,” said Kerry. “The figure is well beyond that quoted by UN human rights chief Navi Pillay, who said Tuesday the number of people killed in Syria’s civil war is probably approaching 70,000,” noted AP. “She told the UN Security Council that there have probably been almost 10,000 new deaths in recent weeks.”

As we’ve discussed in recent months, the implosion of Damascus is going from bad to worse. The West has no answers. Iran and Russia are making things worse. The Assad government is tottering on the edge. Chemical and biological weapons caches are sitting there, in danger of being used or stolen. It’s difficult in such an environment not to think something more catastrophic is coming. The fall of Damascus may not be far off. I look forward to discussing all this in more detail when Damascus Countdown releases next month, and when President Obama heads to the region. In the meantime, let’s not give up hope. Let’s keep praying for peace and that this evil scourge should end soon.

>> Pre-order my forthcoming international geopolitical thriller, Damascus Countdown, which releases March 5th

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad during a meeting in 2005.

Regulars readers of this blog — and books like The Ezekiel Option and Epicenter — know that I’ve been writing about a growing and troublesome alliance between Russia and Iran since 2005. Given that history, I thought it would be important to bring this New York Post article to your attention today. The headline is, “Why Iran is falling into Russia’s arms,” and it’s written by Amir Taheri.

Taheri is an Iranian dissident and former editor-in-chief of an Iranian newspaper whom I find quite insightful about Iranian foreign and domestic policy and political intrigues. He was one of the first international journalists to  notice and begin reporting Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s obsession with eschatology. After reading Taheri’s work, I began to study more closely Ahmadinejad’s pronouncements on the subject and began studying more carefully the substance of Shia End Times theology and its impact on Iranian foreign policy. While he was ahead of the curve on Ahmadinejad’s eschatology, Taheri is a little behind the curve on noticing the alliance forming between Russia and Iran. and its implications. Still, the good news is that he has focused on important new developments in recent weeks and is on to the story now.

Students of Bible prophecy will find all this particularly interesting. After all, the Hebrew prophet Ezekiel wrote 2,500 years ago that a dictator (Gog) from the territory we now call Russia (Magog) would form an alliance in the “last days” with Persia (what we now call Iran) and a group of other Middle Eastern countries. The goal of the alliance will be to threaten and then attack a prosperous and secure Israel in the years following Israel’s prophetic rebirth. Such an event has never happened in human history, but a growing number of Jewish and Christian Bible scholars and teachers believe geopolitical trends suggest the fulfillment of the “War of Gog and Magog” prophecy might not be so far off.

For now, I commend Taheri’s column to your attention.

Key excerpts:

• “A strategic partnership”: So Iran and Russia describe the series of security, economic and cultural agreements they’ve signed together in the past few weeks.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister Ai-Akbar Salehi arrived in Moscow this week to co-chair the first annual session of the “partnership” with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov. Days earlier, a group of officers from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard arrived in the Russian capital for a crash course in crowd control and civil unrest. They’re expected to return to Iran by May and be “operational” in time for the June presidential election. Iranian authorities are nervous about expected unrest during the elections, and so have called on Russia to help prevent an Iranian version of the “Arab Spring.” But Russia made its support conditional on signing a security treaty with Iran; Tehran complied last month.
• The agreement represents a break with an old principle in Iran’s defense and security doctrines. Russia has been a source of fear and fascination for its Iranian neighbors since the 18th century. Several wars of varying magnitude proved Russia to be a threat, as successive czars dreamed of winning control of a port on the Indian Ocean — which meant annexing or dominating Iran.
• In Iranian political folklore, Russia has long been depicted as a bear whose embrace, even if friendly, could smother you….Even after the fall of the shah and of the USSR, the Iranian tradition of keeping the Russian bear at arm’s length continued under the Khomeinist regime. It’s clear that a different fear has moved Tehran to abandon that tradition.
• The new security pact provides for cooperation in intelligence gathering and the fight “against terrorism, people-trafficking, and drug-smuggling.” But it more significant is that it commits Russia to training and equipping Iranian security forces to deal with civil unrest….
• There are other signs of change in Moscow-Tehran relations. Last week, Iran played host to Russian warships visiting Bandar Abbas on the Strait of Hormuz in what looks like the opening gambit for a Russian naval presence in the strategic waterway….
• Days after the Irano-Russian pact was signed, Putin announced that he had terminated security cooperation with the United States on the fight against drug trafficking, people-smuggling and piracy.
• Observers in Tehran say the change in relations is caused by several factors. Both regimes are involved in the Syrian civil war on the side of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Both believe that the “Arab Spring” is the result of “plots” hatched by Washington under the Bush administration. Both fear that the “velvet revolution” recipe for regime change could be used against them. And both Moscow and Tehran regard what they see as an US strategic retreat under President Obama as an opportunity. They think that, with the United States out, no other power has the capacity to check their regional ambitions.

Important related recent headlines:

• Iran hopes to build second nuclear reactor with Russian help
• Iran, Russia sign deals to boost trade
• Iran wants space ties with Russia: Minister
• Independent Iran, strong Russia could complement each other
• US takes aim at Iran and Russia over Syria

>> What does the future of Israel hold? Come with me and The Joshua Fund on a “Prayer & Vision Trip” to the Holy Land and to the 2013 Epicenter Conference this summer. For more details, and/or to register, please click here.

• Pre-order Damascus Countdown, which releases March 5th
• Order the paperback of The Tehran Initiative
• To support The Joshua Fund, please visit www.joshuafund.net

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad touring a nuclear enrichment facility (photo credit: Washington Post archives)

“Iran recently sought to acquire tens of thousands of highly specialized magnets used in centrifuge machines, according to experts and diplomats, a sign that the country may be planning a major expansion of its nuclear program that could shorten the path to an atomic weapons capability,” reports the Washington Post. “Purchase orders obtained by nuclear researchers show an attempt by Iranian agents to buy 100,000 of the ring-shaped magnets — which are banned from export to Iran under U.N. resolutions — from China about a year ago, those familiar with the effort said. It is unclear whether the attempt succeeded.”

Key excerpts from the Post report:

• Although Iran has frequently sought to buy banned items from foreign vendors, this case is considered unusual because of the order’s specificity and sheer size — enough magnets in theory to outfit 50,000 new centrifuges, or nearly five times the number that Iran currently operates. The revelation of the new orders for nuclear-sensitive parts coincides with Iran’s announcement that it plans to add thousands of more-advanced, second-generation centrifuges that would allow it to ramp up its production of enriched uranium even further, analysts said.
• “They are positioning themselves to make a lot of nuclear progress quickly,” said a European diplomat with access to sensitive intelligence on Iran’s nuclear facilities, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. “Each step forward makes the situation potentially more dangerous.”
• A shrinking of Iran’s timeline for obtaining a weapons capability could increase pressure on Israel, which in recent months has appeared to ease off from threats of a preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. In a speech Monday to American Jewish leaders, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran had not crossed the “red line” that would warrant a military strike, but he said the country’ s recent nuclear advances “shorten the time it will take them to cross that line.”
• Complicating Israel’s calculus, Iran has simultaneously taken steps to ease Western anxiety over its nuclear program, chiefly by converting a portion of its uranium stockpile into a metal form that cannot be easily used to make nuclear weapons. A Foreign Ministry spokesman confirmed Tuesday that the conversion of some of Iran’s uranium stockpile was underway. “This work is being done,” the spokesman, Ramin Mehmanparast, told reporters in Tehran.

“The number of people killed in Syria’s civil war is probably approaching 70,000, UN human rights chief Navi Pillay said Tuesday,” according to a report by the Associated Press and the Times of Israel. “Less than six weeks ago, Pillay said the death toll had exceeded 60,000, a figure she called ‘truly shocking.’ But on Tuesday, she told the UN Security Council on Tuesday that there have probably been almost 10,000 new deaths in recent weeks. Pillay said the council’s deep division and inaction over the nearly two-year-old Syrian conflict ‘has been disastrous, and civilians on all sides have paid the price.’ She again urged the council to refer Syria to the International Criminal Court.”

Tragically, the implosion of Syria continues unabated. Assad’s regime is tottering. Radical forces are fomenting the chaos and seeking to take advantage. Might Assad resort to using Syria’s chemical and biological weapons against the Syrian people, or against Israel? Might such WMD fall into the hands of Radical Islamists? The Israelis recently launched an airstrike against a military convoy in Syria. What will happen next? It’s difficult in such an environment not to think something more catastrophic is coming. Has the countdown already begun?

Please pray for calm. Pray for the Lord to restrain the evil that has been unleashed there. Pray the Lord comforts those who are grieving, strengthens the believers to boldly and courageously share the Gospel, and gives wisdom to Christians outside of Syria to know how to help.

>> Pre-order my forthcoming international geopolitical thriller, Damascus Countdown, which releases March 5th

Last night, as somone who cares deeply about the future of our great country, I sat down with my wife and watched the State of the Union address.

Given the enormity of challenges America faces domestically and internationally, I pray for this President. Every day, my family and I ask the Lord to give wisdom to him and his advisors and to Congress to handle the severe threats we face. We’re commanded to do it, but we also want to do it. The Apostle Paul wrote, “First of all, then, I urge that entreaties and prayers, petitions and thanksgivings, be made on behalf of all men, for kings and all who are in authority, so that we may lead a tranquil and quiet life in all godliness and dignity. This is good and acceptable in the sight of God our Savior.” (1 Timothy 2:1-3).

When I see this President take wise action on a range of different issues, I am grateful. He’s done a good job defending us from Radical Islamic terrorism. He took bold action to take out Osama bin Laden. He didn’t precipitously pull U.S. forces out of Iraq upon taking office as he had promised to do in the 2008 election, but gave them time to accomplish more, and they are out now. He supported a surge in Afghanistan. His relationship with Israeli leaders has been rocky at best and often frustrating, but he’s been right to fund the Iron Dome system. He was also right to oppose unilateral action by the Palestinians to create a state rather than have a negotiated peace agreement with Israel.  He’s set a good moral example as a husband and father in the White House. There were things he said last night (in defense of fathers and families, and on behalf of our military, and children struggling to get ahead, for example) that I appreciate very much.

When I see the President take unwise action on a range of other important issues, however, I am concerned, and I have to say I was deeply disappointed with last night’s speech.

“We can say with renewed confidence that the State of our Union is stronger,” the President declared in his opening remarks. [Read full text here]

Can we really? Is that accurate?

LIFE: How strong can our nation be when we have aborted more than 54 million children since 1973? Unless something changes soon, we will soon have killed 60 million children. Think about that number. That would be ten times the number of Jews that the Nazis killed during the Holocaust. We know the judgment God brought on Germany. Do we really expect God to do less to us unless we repent? The President spoke of being focused on “saving the world’s children from preventable deaths.” Isn’t abortion preventable? How much longer will Washington ignore this genocide and do nothing to stop it? I am disappointed the President isn’t committed to creating a culture of life and to helping us end this evil scourge of infanticade. I love this country, which is why I must speak out on this great moral issue of our time. I fear for our future if we don’t wake up and reverse course.

SPENDING & DEBT: “Ask not what your country will do for you. Ask why it spends and borrows so much to do it.” That’s what I wanted to hear addressed during the State of the Union address last night. It did not happen. President Obama did not provide a comprehensive and detailed plan to end annual deficits of $1 trillion and more. Why not?

The President did not lay out a plan to start paying down a $16 trillion national debt. Why not? The President did not lay out a serious plan to save and improve Medicare and other entitlement programs that will bankrupt our country unless they are fixed wisely and soon. Why not? Instead, the President proposed billions of dollars of new spending. He said these would be fully paid for, but with such an enormous deficit, I can no longer take such pronouncements seriously.

SYRIA: Meanwhile, beyond our shores, there are regimes out there (like Assad’s government in Syria) that are committing genocide. The death toll in Syria has now reached some 70,000 people. Yet the President barely mentioned the implosion of that country. He never mentioned Syria’s alliance with Iran. Nor did he mention the chemical and biological weapons Syria has and could potentially use against its own population, or give to terrorists, or lose control of, or use against Israel. Why not?

IRAN: There are other regimes out there (like the Khamenei/Ahmadinejad government in Iran) that is planning genocide, threatening to wipe Israel “off the map” and create a world without Israel or the United States. Iran continues to accelerate its bid for nuclear weapons. It could achieve break-out capacity this year. Israel is actively considering launching a massive preemptive military strike. The White House is pressuring the Netanyahu government not to do it. Iran could become the biggest issue in the President’s second term. It could provoke the most horrific war in the modern history of the Middle East. Yet all the President said last night on the subject was this:”The leaders of Iran must recognize that now is the time for a diplomatic solution, because a coalition stands united in demanding that they meet their obligations, and we will do what is necessary to prevent them from getting a nuclear weapon.” That’s it? No new plan to decisively neutralize the Iranian nuclear threat before it’s too late? No new thinking whatsoever on such a vital issue? Why not?

ISRAEL: The State of Israel — our most faithful and important ally in the volatile Middle East — merited no more mention than Yemen or Mali or Somalia. Why not? Yes, the President is heading there next month. But don’t the American people deserve a preview of how the President intends to handle this important relationship? Don’t America’s enemies, and Israel’s, need to hear a full-throated defense of our ally in the President’s most important annual address?

MISSILE DEFENSE: There are still other regimes out there (like the one in North Korea) that are testing nuclear warheads and the ballistic missiles to deliver them. Yet the President did not propose a sweeping new plan to provide robust missile defense for the American people. He barely even mentioned the issue. Why not?

The challenges America faces domestically and internationally are real and serious and urgent. We need leaders who understand the times and know what America must do. We need leaders who realize that if we do not make fundamental, sweeping changes soon, we face not just decline, but implosion. Where are those leaders? Time is growing short.

>> The President’s going to Israel this year — so is the Secretary of State — how about you? Come with me and The Joshua Fund on a “Prayer & Vision Trip” to the Holy Land and to the 2013 Epicenter Conference this summer. For more details, and/or to register, please click here.

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“North Korea conducted its third nuclear test on Tuesday in defiance of U.N. resolutions, drawing condemnation from around the world, including from its only major ally, China, which summoned the North Korean ambassador to protest,” Reuters reports. “North Korea said the test had ‘greater explosive force’ than those it conducted in 2006 and 2009. Its KCNA news agency said it had used a ‘miniaturized’ and lighter nuclear device, indicating it had again used plutonium, which is suitable for use as a missile warhead.”

Outgoing Defense Secretary Leon Panetta called North Korea a “rogue state” whose nuclear weapons program poses a “serious threat” to U.S. national security. “We just saw what North Korea’s done in these last few weeks — a missile test and now a nuclear test,” Panetta said. “They represent a serious threat to the United States of America. We’ve got to be prepared to deal with that.”

Panetta is right. The leadership of the DPRK is off the reservation and highly unstable. We can’t rule out the possibility Pyongyang is building nuclear warheads to attach to ballistic missiles to fire at the U.S., a horrifying scenario like the one I envisioned in my 2008 novel, Dead Heat (in which four U.S. cities are hit with nuclear missiles during a presidential election.)

But there is another disturbing possibility as well: the Iranians may be paying the North Koreans to test nuclear warheads for them, and transferring the data to Tehran to help Iran further accelerate their bid for The Bomb. This strikes me as a more likely scenario, and thus one I wrote about in The Tehran Initiative (and play forward in my forthcoming thriller, Damascus Countdown.)

Unfortunately, what we’re seeing in the headlines today is not the stuff of geopolitical thrillers. It is real and it is dangerous. Today, the Weekly Standard — picking up on a story in the New York Times — notes that “an unnamed ‘senior American official’ suggests that North Korea is not just testing nukes for itself, but also for (and possibly with) the Iranians.”

The New York Times reports:

No country is more interested in the results of the North’s nuclear program, or the Western reaction, than Iran, which is pursuing its own uranium enrichment program. The two countries have long cooperated on missile technology, and many intelligence officials believe they share nuclear knowledge as well, though so far there is no hard evidence.

The Iranians are also pursuing uranium enrichment, and one senior American official said two weeks ago that “it’s very possible that the North Koreans are testing for two countries.” Some believe that the country may have been planning two simultaneous tests, but it could take time to sort out the data.

——————————

This is precisely why President Obama and his administration must take decisive action to neutralize the Iranian nuclear threat — and build effective missile defenses — before it’s too late to protect ourselves from Iran, North Korea or other rogue states. Will the President discuss his plans in these areas during tonight’s State of the Union address? Let us pray he does.